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|||||||]</p><p>So we charted up the Major League leaders in BABIP last year to test the theory. Maybe some of them would be average or worse in hard-hit rate of their BABIP and we could more confidently predict regression. But instead what we find is that all of the top BABIP pitchers were good to great in allowing weakly-hit BABIP. Instead of a well-hit BABIP average of .167, they ranged from .100 () to .147 (Hector Santiago). To make the math really simple, the average pitchers had an actual BABIP .132 points above his well-hit BABIP. So let’s just add .132 to the well-hit rate of the “luckiest†pitchers and ballpark what their expected BABIP should have been in 2015.</p><p>When we compare “expected BABIP†to “actual BABIP†we find that some of the low-BABIP list were actually quite unlucky. In other words, their BABIP should have been even lower. Look at for example. He was 14th at .277 BABIP but since only .108 of his BABIP was well hit, we’d expect about a .240 average on it. Yet FIP and many touts will look at Harvey’s .277 BABIP and regress it up — the wrong way. The smart play with Harvey is projecting his BABIP to be even lower than last year. I’d peg it at .260. His teammate Jake deGrom (.114 well-hit BABIP) also should be viewed as unlucky in BABIP (it was .277, too, but should have been about .246). Of course, the Mets defense could be a factor here but not reasonably to this degree.</p><p>Clearly there is luck/variance in BABIP. The correlation between the BABIP our leaders allowed and their rate of allowing well-hit BABIP is poor. should have had about a .270 BABIP, not .232. So that’s not likely able to be repeated. But the direction of Greinke’s BABIP — it being better than average — is bettable because he was much better than average in allowing weak contact.</p><p>But many of us will look at a guy like especially and give his BABIP the stink eye and just hammer him on regression that sure seems less likely when you look at the batted ball quality he allowed. Estrada was 32.3% better than average in preventing well-hit BABIP. Doesn’t that earn you significantly less hits allowed? If we say that low hit-quality on BABIP is due to bad hitting and not pitching and thus also luck, we’ve relegated pitchers to mere bystanders and that’s clearly false given the repeated excellence of many.</p><p> is the most interesting name on this list because he’s a ground-ball pitcher. So he’s not only allowing weak contact but the contact he allows is relatively harmless to begin with (very few ground balls result in extra bases). Yet the experts project his ERA to track his FIP ERA (meaningless for him, our model says). And thus he’s going in the second-tier of pitchers when he clearly seems Tier 1 to me with an expected ERA in the mid-2.00s and not the low 3.00s we’re seeing in most projections.</p><p>So let’s reorder the BABIP leaders by their expected BABIP that’s tethered to how well their BIP was hit. These are the guys we can bet on to beat the balls-in-play odds again: Sonny Gray, Jake Arrieta, Keuchel, Harvey, Estrada, deGrom, Garrett Richards, Michael Wacha — I’ll be surprised if any of them were over .280 this year in the statistic. </p><p>For fantasy purposes, I’d confidently project deGrom, Harvey and Keuchel as No. 1 fantasy starters who you can get in the second tier about round four or five. Richards andWacha are the prototype middle-round starters who are bettable as a fantasy No. 2.</p><p>Estrada’s problem is pitching in the American League East but he’s a decent reserve pick in mixed leagues, where you will get him. Gray is not a bargain, as I put him in the tier with Richards and Wacha but he’s going about three to four rounds earlier.</p><p>More Fantasy Baseball analysis from Yahoo Sports</p><p></p>Sports & RecreationBaseballBABIP <a href=http://www.coachonlineoutlet.us.com/>coach outlet</a> <p>Recently, State Farm began to move employees into the buildings as they are completed. Currently, in building four of the facility, which is comprised of five buildings, there are roughly 950 employees with 300-plus to begin working there in the next week as the company consolidates all of its area operations to the $700-plus million Marina Heights location.</p> 
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